The Uganda Bankers’ Association (UBA) has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the Ugandan government’s ambitious economic expansion strategy, which aims to grow the country’s GDP from USD 50 billion to USD 500 billion by 2040.
Speaking at the 2025 UBA CEO Retreat, UBA Chairperson Julius Kakeeto emphasised the critical role of the banking sector in facilitating this transformation. He stated, “Finance is a key enabler. Appropriate financing is the key word here! There is a common belief that the strength of a nation depends on the depth and strength of its financial system.”
He further underscored the importance of financial institutions in mobilising resources to fuel the country’s growth agenda. “This ambitious plan must be funded from both public and private resources. While the government has in place a public financing strategy, the private sector will need financing anchored by financial institutions in their various categories. Positioning them is central to this planning process, including the level of preparedness,” Kakeeto said.
The ATMS Strategy, which focuses on Agriculture, Tourism, Minerals (including Oil & Gas), and Science, Technology, and Innovation, is a cornerstone of Uganda’s Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV). Kakeeto explained that the banking industry must assess its capacity to meet the financial demands of this transformation. “For the banking sector in Uganda, with a loan book of 12.4% of GDP, a tenfold growth in lending would require us to move from the current total lending of UGX 22.8 trillion (USD 6.2 billion) reported in November 2024 to UGX 228 trillion (USD 62 billion) by 2040,” he noted.
He posed a crucial question to the financial industry, asking, “How much of the deposits need to be mobilised to extend credit to that magnitude? What would it take to double it to 25% or 50% of GDP?” Kakeeto further highlighted the need for banks to evaluate alternative funding mechanisms, stating, “How much regulatory capital is required, and how should we consider other alternative sources of capital, whether domestic or foreign?”
Aligning Banking with National Growth Priorities
During the retreat, Moses Kaggwa, the Director of Economic Affairs at the Ministry of Finance, underscored the scale of Uganda’s economic ambitions and the structural shifts required to achieve them. He acknowledged the bold nature of the country’s GDP growth target, stating, “The ambition of growing Uganda’s GDP from USD 50 billion in FY 2022/23 to USD 500 billion by 2040 is a bold one. Therefore, achieving this requires a shift in economic programming and financing mechanisms, as well as a well-coordinated role between the public and private sectors.”
Kaggwa outlined specific economic targets that the country must achieve to sustain this level of growth. “Uganda’s economic expansion agenda requires raising per capita GDP from USD 1,093 in FY 2022/23 to USD 7,000 by 2040. It requires doubling GDP size every five years over the next three National Development Plans, doubling the national savings rate from 20% of GDP in 2022 to 40% by 2040, increasing the share of exports in GDP from 12% to 50%, and raising the share of manufactured products in merchandise exports from 13% to 50%,” he explained.
He also stressed the importance of foreign investment in this economic shift, stating, “We need to increase annual FDI inflows from USD 2.9 billion in 2022 to USD 50 billion by 2040.” Kaggwa highlighted the critical role of human, physical, and natural capital accumulation in driving this transformation.
Strategic Banking Response to ATMS and NDP IV
Kaggwa provided further insights into the four key pillars that will drive Uganda’s economic expansion. He emphasized the importance of structured financing mechanisms tailored to each sector’s investment cycles and risk profiles.
On agriculture and agro-industry, he noted, “The public sector must enable agricultural commercialization, develop structured value chains, and expand irrigation infrastructure, while the private sector should focus on investing in agro-processing, contract farming, and AgriTech innovations.”
In the tourism sector, he stressed the need for both government and private investment, stating, “The public sector must market Uganda as a high-value tourism destination, upgrade infrastructure, and ensure security, while the private sector should invest in high-end hospitality, tourism services, and experience-driven travel offerings.”
Discussing minerals, oil, and gas, Kaggwa highlighted the government’s responsibility in fast-tracking geological surveys and refining mining laws, while urging the private sector to develop extraction, refining, and value-addition infrastructure.
For science, technology, and innovation, he pointed out that Uganda must expand digital infrastructure, support research and development, and foster an innovation-driven economy, calling on the private sector to invest in technology hubs, high-tech manufacturing, and commercialization of research.
Challenges and Opportunities for the Financial Sector
The UBA CEO Retreat also provided a platform for industry leaders to discuss the challenges of financing Uganda’s economic transformation. Kakeeto acknowledged that the road ahead requires bold financial decisions, stating, “As we delve into the details of our deliberations today, for each of the sessions, let us focus our thought processes on the following questions: Where is the opportunity for financial institutions in this ATMS plan, and how prepared is the financial system in Uganda?”
He urged financial institutions to assess their ability to commit to this vision, asking, “How and what will it take for the financial system, the various financial institutions, and the operating framework to better apply themselves to this plan? What specific prayers, asks, or factors should be taken into account for the financial and funding aspects of this plan to succeed?”
Kaggwa reinforced this perspective, emphasizing that Uganda’s economic expansion cannot be sustained without a robust financial system. “These sectors require well-structured financing mechanisms that align with their investment cycles and risk profiles,” he noted.
Call to Action: Strengthening Public-Private Sector Collaboration
The 2025 UBA CEO Retreat concluded with a strong call for collaboration between the financial sector, government, and private industry. Kakeeto emphasized that Uganda must learn from economies that have successfully crossed the USD 500 billion threshold, stating, “The success stories of some of the Asian Tiger economies in the USD 500 billion nominal GDP range could provide us with insights to shed some light on the journey of these economies.”
He further urged financial institutions to take a proactive role in shaping Uganda’s economic destiny, declaring, “For Uganda’s financial sector, this is our moment. We must rise to the occasion and become the engine of this historic economic transformation.”
Kaggwa echoed this sentiment, urging banks to be bold in their approach to financing economic transformation, stating, “If we think small, we will remain small. Uganda’s USD 500 billion economy is not a dream—it is a goal. But it will only be achieved if we align our financial structures with the ambition required.”
As Uganda moves into the implementation phase of NDP IV (2026-2030), all eyes will be on the banking industry to provide the financial foundation needed to turn this vision into reality.