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This festive season, I had time to reflect deeply on how insanely gifted Uganda, the Pearl of Africa, is by nature and how we, as a country, have failed to maximise this potential year after year.
Year in and year out, we, as a country, have failed to allocate resources to where they can bear the most return on investment. We continue to ignore optimally investing in both refining the thousands of pearls that make up this Pearl of Africa and aggressively taking them to the marketplace to unlock the billions of dollars that lie in waiting.
My reflections were whipped up by the just-released National Budget Framework Paper FY 2025/26 – FY 2029/30, specifically, the Tourism Development Programme. In the plan, Uganda seeks to exponentially increase forex earnings from USD1 billion in FY2023/24 to USD4 billion by the end of 2029/30. To achieve this fourfold growth, our tourism earnings must grow by a minimum of 32% annually! To pull off this near-miracle, we must also increase spending per foreign tourist by 10% annually from the current USD1,550 to USD2,500 by FY2029/30!
A couple of other interesting targets are also attached to achieving these revenue targets, such as increasing domestic expenditures annually by 8% so we can hit UGX5.35 trillion by FY2029/30, up from UGX3.68 trillion in FY2023/24.
This looks uplifting until you see how much budgetary resources the government directly dedicates to pulling off this miracle.
For starters, Uganda’s tourism sector has been perenially underfunded, perhaps with one of the broadest funding gaps. According to a Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities (MTWA) Annual Performance Report for the FY2023/24 released in September 2024, the government had planned to spend a total of UGX2.05 trillion in the first four years of the 3rd National Development Plan (NDP III), which ended June 2024, but by this time, only UGX826.5 billion (40%) had been appropriated, leaving out 60%, equivalent to UGX1.222 trillion, unfunded.
In the last financial year of NDP III (FY2024/25), the government allocated UGX298 billion to the sector, which is also below budget.
It is, therefore, not surprising that by this time, most sector targets were unmet. For example, with one year left to the end of the Tourism Development Programme (FY 20/21- FY 24/25), whose goal was to promote domestic and inbound tourism, increase the stock and quality of tourism infrastructure, develop, conserve and diversify tourism products and services, create a pool of skilled personnel along the tourism value chain as well as enhance regulation, coordination and management of the tourism sector, overall performance was at 57.7%.
This seriously jeopardises the programme’s overriding goal⏤ , increasing Uganda’s attractiveness as a preferred tourism destination”.
Notable programme KPIs at risk of not being achieved include hitting the USD1.862 billion forex earnings targets by the end of FY2024/25 because, with just one year to go, we stood at USD1.025 billion.
The 5.1% contribution to GDP achieved in FY2023/24 is also far from the 8% end-of-program target.
Uganda is also materially below the percentage of leisure tourists as a proportion of total visitors⏤ by 16 % in 2023 versus the 30% programme targets. Leisure tourists are essential because they stay longer and spend more.
Uganda is also under-performing on its targets for increasing the number of visitors from the key source markets of Europe, the Americas, Japan & China, where most of these leisure tourists come from. With one year left to the end of the Programme, in FY2023/24, Uganda reported 67,252 tourists from these key markets⏤ 3 times far from the 225,300 target by the end of FY2024/25.
Of unmet NDP III targets and a fourfold increase in NDP IV targets
Faced with a prospect of unmet investment and performance targets, Uganda has instead curiously increased its earnings performance targets fourfold.
However, looking at how much the government plans to commit to these new targets, as contained in the just-released National Budget Framework Paper FY 2025/26 – FY 2029/30, leaves more questions than answers.
Despite the sector’s funding backlog over the NDP III period, government planners plan to reduce tourism sector funding by 40%, from UGX298 billion in FY2024/25 to UGX176 billion in FY2025/26. The government then plans to increase direct resources to the sector at an annual average of 12.9% over the next five years to reach UGX322.5 billion by FY2029/30.
While the government hopes to increase earnings fourfold (300%) from USD1 billion to USD4 billion, it only plans to increase direct investment in the sector by 83.2%, from UGX176 billion to UGX322.5 billion. Dollar for dollar, the government wants to invest USD88 million to make USD4 billion!
While the budget framework paper shows that the Uganda Tourism Board (UTB), the body charged with sector regulation and Destination Uganda Marketing, will increase its budget by 12.2% annually over the NDP IV term life from UGX21.1 billion to UGX37.5 billion, it is essential to know that the growth rate of investment in the sector and the marketing function is far below that of the expected earnings (32.2%).
It is also below the indicative NDP IV required investment and certainly below what our regional peers and competitors are investing.
For context, by December 2024, Rwanda is believed to have paid Arsenal FC a total of £70 million since 2018 to market the country’s tourism brand. That is an average of ￡10 million (UGX46 billion) annually on Arsenal FC alone! In other words, Rwanda spends more than twice UTB’s budget on one advertising property alone!
Attractions are a stage; experiences are the performance.
Uganda is undoubtedly a land of unique and exceptional beauty. Many worldwide agree that it captures the essence of Africa, showcasing its depth, diversity, and breathtaking highlights. From towering mountains and deep lakes to mighty rivers with majestic waterfalls and exhilarating rapids, Uganda boasts vast savannahs that blend seamlessly into dense, untamed forests alongside vibrant, thriving cities.
With authentic cultural and heritage experiences and flavorful cuisine lovingly prepared by some of the world’s most hospitable people, Uganda truly stands out as a once-in-a-lifetime destination. If only we could add value to these unique competitive advantages and turn them into products and experiences.
Despite being hugely gifted by nature, Uganda’s tourism sector performs below potential. Before COVID-19, between 2012 and 2019, Uganda’s tourism earnings grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 5%, reaching USD1.232 billion in 2019. Then Covid-19 set in, taking us back by a decade.
While the sector is on its way to full post-COVID-19 recovery⏤ by the end of 2023, sector earnings reached USD1.025 or 83% of pre-COVID-19 earnings. Uganda’s recovery is trailing behind that of our major regional competitors: Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is projecting a record-breaking year for Travel & Tourism in 2024, with the sector’s global economic contribution set to reach an all-time high of $11.1 trillion.
According to the global tourism body’s 2024 Economic Impact Research (EIR), Travel and tourism will contribute an additional $ 770 billion over its previous record, stamping its authority as a global economic powerhouse, generating one dollar in every 10 worldwide.
As the global sector soars past its pre-pandemic prosperity, WTTC expects 142 countries out of 185 analysed will outperform previous national records.
According to the UN Tourism World Tourism Barometer for September 2024, which covers January-July 2024, global international tourist arrivals hit 96% of pre-pandemic levels. An estimated 790 million tourists travelled internationally in the first seven months of 2024, about 11% more than in 2023 but 4% less than in 2019. This indicates a 96% recovery of pre-pandemic numbers.
Africa welcomed 7% more tourists than in the same months of 2019. However, much of this growth came from North Africa, which saw the strongest performance with 21% more international arrivals in the first seven months of 2024 than before the pandemic.
While Subsaharan Africa was reported to be 3% below its 2019 figures, Tanzania (+49%) and Kenya (+10%) exceeded their 2019 numbers in the first six to seven months of 2024.
According to the UNWTO, this growth was facilitated by increased air connectivity, visa facilitation and solid intra-regional demand.
Money makes more money
“Uganda, the Pearl of Africa, is incredibly gifted by nature with various tourism assets and experiences. However, given the range, depth, and variety of our potential, Uganda can do much better with more optimal investment in the sector. Tourism presently contributes 5.5% of GDP, but in the FY2024/25 budget, it was only allocated 0.4% of the national budget (UGX298 billion out of a total budget of UGX72 trillion). In the 2025/26 budget, this will reduce further to 0.3% (UGX176 billion out of a resource envelope of UGX57.4 trillion).
The challenges and threats that face our tourism sector are well-known and well-documented.
Over and above sub-optimal public investment in the sector, other challenges and threats (in no particular order of importance) include inadequate brand awareness and reputation, especially in key markets, poor transport, energy, and ICT infrastructure, an underdeveloped, narrow & unsold products range; negative travel advisories by key overseas source markets, poor human resources & skills gap across all levels which diminish the customer experience; inadequate investment into research & sector data to guide key decisions, an uncompetitive local funding regime for the private sector, an uncompetitive tax regime; low digitalisation, glaring gender gaps characterised by inadequate and less meaningful participation of women and youth as well as a weak private sector.
Other issues include revenue leakages due to over-reliance on foreign actors, e.g. foreign tour operators and online travel agencies; intense competition from regional peers and other stronger destinations; heavy reliance on low-value African source markets and overreliance on nature-based tourism—the absence of effective crisis management and communication systems.
Overall, most of these challenges require adequate and consistent investment by the government and the private sector to make Uganda a competitive destination for tourists and investors.
Yes, we understand that the government is hard-pressed for resources, but one would have expected that in the watershed year that bridges NDP III and NDP IV, there would have been above-normal allocations to accelerate the sector’s full recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by creating and/or supporting initiatives that enhance competitiveness, resilience, and sustainability, as a foundation for the fivefold growth envisaged under the National Development Plan IV (NDP IV).
Cutting resources at a time when the Uganda Tourism Board (UTB) is just rolling out its new Uganda National Destination Marketing Strategy 2024/25 – 2028/29, which seeks to strategically position Uganda as an attractive and sustainable tourism destination among key market segments and priority source markets, is undoubtedly untimely.
As the private sector, we were excited by the government’s inclusion of the tourism sector among the ATMS (Agro Industrialization, Tourism, Minerals, Science and Technology)—sectors that will transform the economy into a middle-income economy by 2030. Still, it appears the government is not putting money where its mouth is.
There is sufficient research to show that, given our many tourist attractions, the tourism sector is a low-hanging fruit that could drive the economic growth we so badly want.
According to the World Bank’s Statistical and Economic Analysis of Uganda’s Tourism Expenditure and Motivation Survey 2019, every USD1 a foreign tourist spends generates an average of USD2.5 of GDP- directly and indirectly along the value chain. This compares well with the USD 2.3 of GDP generated per USD1 earned from traditional exports from Uganda.
The study also reported that attracting an additional 100,000 international leisure visitors to Uganda would increase tourism earnings by 11% and add 1.6% to the country’s GDP. If each of Uganda’s 1.6 million foreign tourists stayed one additional night, tourism earnings would rise by 7%, and the GDP would increase by 1%.
Why are we then not giving enough investment and attention to tourism like we provide to other sectors?
CONCLUSION
Uganda is beautiful and has a lot of attractions. However, this is not enough. Uganda must invest more in turning these attractions into experiences because tourists pay for experiences. An attraction provides a stage, and the experience is a performance. To create experiences from attractions, there is a need for investment in value addition to the experiences. To build a competitive destination in Uganda that fully unlocks the socio-economic impact of tourism, priority must be put on developing and aggressively marketing bespoke, demand-driven, and unforgettable tourist experiences to domestic, regional, and international clients.
To do this, the public and private sectors and development partners must collaborate to focus resources on this core agenda: creating a competitive Destination in Uganda for tourists and tourism investors.
Otherwise, going by what I see in the National Budget Framework Paper FY 2025/26 – FY 2029/30, as our President likes to say, this is tourism without ekibaro (cura, aimar, otita).