January 21 – January 28, 2022: Weekly financial markets review and outlook with Stephen Kaboyo

The Uganda shilling perched on the stable side supported by corporate and interbank market activity and held broadly in the range of 3515/25.

In the bond market, investors continued to show huge appetite for the local bonds, with the demand two times over against the offer of 500 billion split into a 3 and 10-year bonds. Yields remained relatively flat at 12.090% for the 3-year bond and 14.390% for the 10 year.

In the regional markets, the Kenya shilling held firm at 113.45/55 as the Central Bank of Kenya kept the policy rate unchanged at 7%. Forecast, however, indicates likely easing as market demand mainly from the oil importers overwhelms the supply. In other markets Zambia, Nigeria and Tanzania are all expected to ease on elevated demand conditions.

Globally the US dollar hit a multi week highs after the Federal Reserve indicated that it is likely to raise US interest rates in March as expected and launch a significant reduction in its asset holdings. Tugging against the dollar gains, is the momentum for tightening almost by every major Central Bank.

Outlook for the shilling indicate relative stability in the coming week on account of typical end month conversions that are likely to tilt the market balance.